The giant tsunami that assaulted northern Japan's coast surprised just about everyone. But Masanobu Shishikura was expecting it. The thought that came to mind, he says, was 'yappari,' a Japanese word meaning roughly, 'Sure enough, it happened.'
'It was the phenomenon just as I had envisioned it,' says the 41-year-old geologist, who has now become the Japanese Cassandra.
Dr. Shishikura's studies of ancient earth layers persuaded him that every 450 to 800 years, colliding plates in the Pacific triggered waves that devastated areas around the modern city of Sendai, in Miyagi Prefecture, as well as in Fukushima Prefecture.
One early tsunami was known to historians. Caused by the 869 Jogan quake, its waves, according to one chronicle, killed 1,000 people. Dr. Shishikura had found strong evidence of a later tsunami in the same region, which probably took place between 1300 and 1600.
'We cannot deny the possibility that [such a tsunami] will occur again in the near future,' he and colleagues wrote in August 2010. That article appeared in a journal published by the Active Fault and Earthquake Research Center in Tsukuba, the government-funded institute where Dr. Shishikura works.
He was beginning to spread the word. Plans were under way at his center to hand out maps so people would understand which areas were at risk. Dr. Shishikura had an appointment on March 23 to explain his research to officials in Fukushima.
Dr. Shishikura's boss at the center, Yukinobu Okamura, had even mentioned the results at a 2009 meeting of an official committee discussing the safety of nuclear-power plants. Dr. Okamura says the idea of beefing up tsunami preparedness didn't go anywhere.
At Dr. Shishikura's eighth-floor office, bookshelves and televisions crashed to the floor during the quake on March 11. He has found temporary office quarters one story below, where he discussed his unheeded warning. 'It's unfortunate that it wasn't in time,' he said. But he also felt vindicated after past slights, remembering the local official who didn't want to help him dig holes in the earth for research and who called the endeavor a 'nuisance.'
His work is part of a young field called paleoseismology. Kerry Sieh, a pioneer in the specialty, says that the few dozen people who do this kind of work are usually doomed to be ignored. Humans are made to trust what they have seen themselves, or what someone they know has seen. They aren't designed 'to deal with these once-in-500-year events,' says Dr. Sieh, formerly of the California Institute of Technology and now head of the Earth Observatory of Singapore.
From his youth, Dr. Shishikura liked to collect fossils in the hills outside Tokyo. He says he realized in high school how geology could answer questions about the past.
His method is fairly simple. Miyagi Prefecture has rich soil, but sandwiched in it are layers of sand and pebbles that Dr. Shishikura says must have been carried from the shore by tsunamis. Looking at the layers allowed his group to estimate the rough dates of waves that struck as far back as 3,500 years ago.
Many lives could have been saved, at relatively little cost, by spreading awareness of the danger. People in Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures were used to strong quakes, but the location and magnitude of these seismic events didn't generate tsunamis. Further north on the eastern coast, tsunamis were well-known from quakes in 1896 and 1933. Those were of yet another, weaker variety that affected mainly low-lying areas along the coast.
During the magnitude 9.0 quake on March 11, some people well inland, thinking themselves safe, took time to change clothes or to make phone calls. Others watched the disaster unfold instead of running to high ground. They proved what Dr. Shishikura's group wrote last year about local tsunamis: 'It appears to be almost completely unknown among the general public that in the past great tsunamis have inundated areas as far as 3-4 kilometers inland as the result of earthquakes exceeding magnitude 8.'
Now, Dr. Shishikura's team is looking at the Nankai trough to the south, which could trigger tsunamis hitting the island of Shikoku and the Kii Peninsula. Dr. Shishikura says large tsunamis appear to hit there every 400 to 600 years, with the most recent in 1707.
Those rough calculations suggest the danger is at least a century away. Still, Dr. Shishikura says, 'we had better be on the lookout.'
Monday, April 11, 2011
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Economists React: PBOC Lifts Interest Rates
China's central bank raised benchmark interest rates Tuesday, a national holiday, lifting one-year yuan lending rate and the one-year yuan deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point each as the country continues to battle inflation. Analysts weigh in:
The timing of today's interest rate hike in China is something of a surprise given more dovish comments in recent days from senior officials, but the rate move is not entirely unexpected. The announcement may cause jitters about the impact tightening will have on Chinese growth. However these should not be overplayed. The latest increases of 25 basis points for one-year deposits and loans are in line with the gradual policy tightening that has been underway over the last few months and will not do much to slow the economy. The benchmark one-year lending rate now stands at 6.31%, still low relative to the pace of economic growth. The constraint on credit growth is the amount that banks can lend rather than the rates they charge. â ' Mark Williams, Capital Economics
This rate hike suggests that the March CPI that is to be released early next week may have surprised to the upside. Our current CPI forecast is 5.2% year-on-year for March. It also suggests that Chinese authorities are confident in the sustainability of underlying growth momentumâ ¦ This rate hike underscores once again the front-loaded monetary tightening, which, together with the rather substantial slowdown in money and credit growth so far this year, bodes well for peaking of the headline inflation rate by mid-year, in our view. â ' Qing Wang, Morgan Stanley
We believe the magnitude of the overall policy tightening package since the start of the year has been large enough to cool down aggregate demand growth sufficiently to lower underlying inflationary pressuresâ ¦ Given the nature of the most of the tightening measures tend to be administratively and quantitatively based, price-based tools which include interest rate hikes and currency appreciation should be welcomed as we believe they tend to be more efficient in resource allocation. Having said that, we believe the 25-basis point hike is more a signaling tool than anything else because of its small magnitudeâ ¦ Going forward, we expect the government to broadly maintain its tightening policy stance in the first half of 2011 given the expected elevated year-on-year CPI, though there might be some subtle adjustments as underlying inflationary pressures come off. â ' Helen Qiao and Yu Song, Goldman Sachs
Today's rate hike suggests three things to us. First, together with one reserve requirement ratio hike on 18 March, today's move signals China's tightening path is less affected by Japan'sâ ¦nuclear crisis. Second, headline inflation is likely to be above 5% in March. Third, China's monetary policy may lean towards front loaded tightening in the first half of the yearâ ¦ Thanks to the strong growth momentum, we expect China's growth to remain strong in the first quarter at 9.7%. However the growth pace is likely to slow gradually in the next few quarters as a result of tightening measures. Therefore, it may make more sense for China to tighten sooner rather than later to fight inflation when the growth rate is still high. â ' Tommy Xie, OCBC
The timing of today's interest rate hike in China is something of a surprise given more dovish comments in recent days from senior officials, but the rate move is not entirely unexpected. The announcement may cause jitters about the impact tightening will have on Chinese growth. However these should not be overplayed. The latest increases of 25 basis points for one-year deposits and loans are in line with the gradual policy tightening that has been underway over the last few months and will not do much to slow the economy. The benchmark one-year lending rate now stands at 6.31%, still low relative to the pace of economic growth. The constraint on credit growth is the amount that banks can lend rather than the rates they charge. â ' Mark Williams, Capital Economics
This rate hike suggests that the March CPI that is to be released early next week may have surprised to the upside. Our current CPI forecast is 5.2% year-on-year for March. It also suggests that Chinese authorities are confident in the sustainability of underlying growth momentumâ ¦ This rate hike underscores once again the front-loaded monetary tightening, which, together with the rather substantial slowdown in money and credit growth so far this year, bodes well for peaking of the headline inflation rate by mid-year, in our view. â ' Qing Wang, Morgan Stanley
We believe the magnitude of the overall policy tightening package since the start of the year has been large enough to cool down aggregate demand growth sufficiently to lower underlying inflationary pressuresâ ¦ Given the nature of the most of the tightening measures tend to be administratively and quantitatively based, price-based tools which include interest rate hikes and currency appreciation should be welcomed as we believe they tend to be more efficient in resource allocation. Having said that, we believe the 25-basis point hike is more a signaling tool than anything else because of its small magnitudeâ ¦ Going forward, we expect the government to broadly maintain its tightening policy stance in the first half of 2011 given the expected elevated year-on-year CPI, though there might be some subtle adjustments as underlying inflationary pressures come off. â ' Helen Qiao and Yu Song, Goldman Sachs
Today's rate hike suggests three things to us. First, together with one reserve requirement ratio hike on 18 March, today's move signals China's tightening path is less affected by Japan'sâ ¦nuclear crisis. Second, headline inflation is likely to be above 5% in March. Third, China's monetary policy may lean towards front loaded tightening in the first half of the yearâ ¦ Thanks to the strong growth momentum, we expect China's growth to remain strong in the first quarter at 9.7%. However the growth pace is likely to slow gradually in the next few quarters as a result of tightening measures. Therefore, it may make more sense for China to tighten sooner rather than later to fight inflation when the growth rate is still high. â ' Tommy Xie, OCBC
Thursday, November 25, 2010
The Hong Kong Lesbian and Gay Film Festival kicks off last Friday with two films
'Man at Bath,' from French director Christophe Honoré about two men in a troubled and violent relationship, and 'The Kids Are All Right,' an American comedy-drama starring Annette Bening and Julianne Moore as a lesbian couple whose suburban-California lives are turned upside when their two teenage children locate their sperm-donor father.
The festival, which runs until Dec. 1, is screening about 50 features and shorts from filmmakers around the world.
Festival director Joe Lam says he is hoping to reach beyond the gay community and draw straight audiences as well. 'I think it sends a very important message' he says.
Other films in the festival include Japanese director Daishi Matsunaga's 'Pyuupiru 2001-2008.' The documentary follows seven years in the life of transgender artist Pyuupiru, whose struggles are chronicled through his performance art, lively fashion creations, and relationships with his family and boyfriend. 'The ending is quite touching,' Mr. Lam says.
'Queer China, 'Comrade' China' details issues facing the modern gay community on the mainland, while the short film 'New Beijing, New Marriage' documents the mock same-sex marriage ceremony on Valentine's Day last year.
The festival, which runs until Dec. 1, is screening about 50 features and shorts from filmmakers around the world.
Festival director Joe Lam says he is hoping to reach beyond the gay community and draw straight audiences as well. 'I think it sends a very important message' he says.
Other films in the festival include Japanese director Daishi Matsunaga's 'Pyuupiru 2001-2008.' The documentary follows seven years in the life of transgender artist Pyuupiru, whose struggles are chronicled through his performance art, lively fashion creations, and relationships with his family and boyfriend. 'The ending is quite touching,' Mr. Lam says.
'Queer China, 'Comrade' China' details issues facing the modern gay community on the mainland, while the short film 'New Beijing, New Marriage' documents the mock same-sex marriage ceremony on Valentine's Day last year.
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
They look like dollhouses-carefully crafted wooden models made of light sycamore
Introducing the Grand Château Series: nine wine cabinets modeled after the most-celebrated estates in Bordeaux: Château Margaux, Château d'Yquem, Château Petrus, Château Haut-Brion, Château La Mission Haut-Brion, Château Mouton Rothschild, Château Latour, Château Cheval Blanc and Château Lafite Rothschild.
Bespoke furniture designer David Linley, a nephew of Queen Elizabeth II, made all the cabinets for this project, which was initiated by the U.K. wine merchant Antique Wine Company.
Behind the doors of each cabinet are drawers filled with wine from one of these estates: 18 bottles of its best vintages from the past 200 years. And atop each cabinet is an architectural model of the actual country house of the estate in question.
But at ￡149,000 British pounds (US$239,205) apiece-￡199,000 for the Château Petrus and Lafite cabinets, because of the rarity of the vintagesinside-who's buying them?
So far, 14 cabinets have sold to Antique Wine Company clients in Europe, Mexico, the U.S. and Asia. But only one customer has bought an entire set: the Hotel Lisboa in Macau, which says it has one of Asia's largest wine collections, comprising more than 3,000 labels. The hotel bought all nine cabinets, minus the premium wine bottles - and says it plans to keep the cabinets on display in its three-star Michelin restaurant Robuchon à Galera. The hotel company did not disclose the price it paid.
'No longer relegated to dusty cellars, the collections of today's fine-wine enthusiasts are now often cleverly integrated into, and featured within, their homes,' says Antique Wine Company Chief Executive Stephen Williams. Asian collectors, in particular, are eager to show off their wines, he adds (link to the article on Asian wine cellars.
Bespoke furniture designer David Linley, a nephew of Queen Elizabeth II, made all the cabinets for this project, which was initiated by the U.K. wine merchant Antique Wine Company.
Behind the doors of each cabinet are drawers filled with wine from one of these estates: 18 bottles of its best vintages from the past 200 years. And atop each cabinet is an architectural model of the actual country house of the estate in question.
But at ￡149,000 British pounds (US$239,205) apiece-￡199,000 for the Château Petrus and Lafite cabinets, because of the rarity of the vintagesinside-who's buying them?
So far, 14 cabinets have sold to Antique Wine Company clients in Europe, Mexico, the U.S. and Asia. But only one customer has bought an entire set: the Hotel Lisboa in Macau, which says it has one of Asia's largest wine collections, comprising more than 3,000 labels. The hotel bought all nine cabinets, minus the premium wine bottles - and says it plans to keep the cabinets on display in its three-star Michelin restaurant Robuchon à Galera. The hotel company did not disclose the price it paid.
'No longer relegated to dusty cellars, the collections of today's fine-wine enthusiasts are now often cleverly integrated into, and featured within, their homes,' says Antique Wine Company Chief Executive Stephen Williams. Asian collectors, in particular, are eager to show off their wines, he adds (link to the article on Asian wine cellars.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Ride a Tokyo subway and you are almost guaranteed to see two groups of people
Those who are sleeping -- not just casual nappers, but folks who are full-on, deep-REM-cycle, drool-down-the-chin asleep.
The other group comprises people staring blankly or furiously punching the keys of clamshell phones with giant screens.
So it shouldn't come as much surprise that a survey by research group comScore's MobiLens service finds that the Japanese are the 'most connected' mobile-phone users in the world. Three of every four Japanese use their phones to either browse the Web, access applications or download content to their handsets. This compares to 44% in the United States and 39% in Europe.
Dig into the survey and some interesting trends emerge. Only 40% of Japanese send text messages, while two-thirds of Americans and 82% of Europeans engage in short message service, or SMS. Why is this?
The Japanese just prefer to send emails, a function that mobile Internet services like NTT DoCoMo Inc.'s i-mode servicehas enabled that for years. While the proliferation of smartphones has made sending emails on the go more common in the U.S. and Europe, the usage figures still trail that of Japan. The report says 54% of Japanese send emails from their phones, compared with 28% of Americans and 19% of Europeans.
One of the unique features offered in Japanese cellphones -- sometimes lampooned as 'Galapagos' models because the technological innovations are specifically tailored to suit Japanese consumers' needs and haven't been adapted for wider use outside of Japan -- is putting Japan ahead of the game in terms of watching video on their phones. Many Japanese watch television on 1seg, a mobile terrestrial digital-audio and video-data broadcasting service. The report said 22% of Japanese watch TV or video on their phones, as opposed to 5% of Americans and Europeans.
The other group comprises people staring blankly or furiously punching the keys of clamshell phones with giant screens.
So it shouldn't come as much surprise that a survey by research group comScore's MobiLens service finds that the Japanese are the 'most connected' mobile-phone users in the world. Three of every four Japanese use their phones to either browse the Web, access applications or download content to their handsets. This compares to 44% in the United States and 39% in Europe.
Dig into the survey and some interesting trends emerge. Only 40% of Japanese send text messages, while two-thirds of Americans and 82% of Europeans engage in short message service, or SMS. Why is this?
The Japanese just prefer to send emails, a function that mobile Internet services like NTT DoCoMo Inc.'s i-mode servicehas enabled that for years. While the proliferation of smartphones has made sending emails on the go more common in the U.S. and Europe, the usage figures still trail that of Japan. The report says 54% of Japanese send emails from their phones, compared with 28% of Americans and 19% of Europeans.
One of the unique features offered in Japanese cellphones -- sometimes lampooned as 'Galapagos' models because the technological innovations are specifically tailored to suit Japanese consumers' needs and haven't been adapted for wider use outside of Japan -- is putting Japan ahead of the game in terms of watching video on their phones. Many Japanese watch television on 1seg, a mobile terrestrial digital-audio and video-data broadcasting service. The report said 22% of Japanese watch TV or video on their phones, as opposed to 5% of Americans and Europeans.
Monday, November 22, 2010
Real Time: Single? Virtual Lovers Available for Holiday Cards
For all those lonely hearts seeking a special someone during the holidays, coupledom is just a snapshot away. Hong Kong's New Town Plaza shopping mall has installed a photo booth in which singles can be photographed next to virtual partners. Enter the booth, select a virtual mate to smile alongside you in a holidaygram, and voila â ' season's greetings from two!
Hong Kong shopping malls are known for extravagant gimmicks to lure coveted holiday shoppers. This year, the annual competition has escalated to new heights. New Town Plaza has invested $15 million Hong Kong dollars, or US$1.9 million, on Christmas promotions this season, up 15% from the year before.
Its 'love and togetherness' decoration theme this year includes a romantic starlight garden and a nightly light show. Shoppers who spend HK$15,000 or more and are looking to tie the knot are eligible to receive custom-made proposal plans from romance consultants.
The virtual photo booth, which requires either a HK$20 donation or a shopping bill at the mall of more than HK$200, is equipped with Augmented Reality (AR) technology that captures real-world objects and integrates them into a virtual world on the screen. Besides a virtual man and woman, two children and two types of Christmas-themed costumes can be selected to be placed in the holiday photo, which will be available on New Town Plaza's Facebook page.
'But the main point of the photo booth is for the people suffering a lonely Christmas,' says Day Yuen, managing director for 430 Limited, the interactive design firm behind the technology.
This is not the first time AR technology has been used to get closer to virtual loved ones. In the resort town of Atami, Japan, AR technology was used to photograph lovestruck men with their videogame girlfriendsas a real-life extension of the Nintendo DS game LovePlus.
New Town Plaza is expecting both foot traffic and sales to grow 12% in November from last year and 15% in December. So far, the booth has been a big attraction. 'I'm not sure why it's so popular,' says Mr. Yuen.
Hong Kong shopping malls are known for extravagant gimmicks to lure coveted holiday shoppers. This year, the annual competition has escalated to new heights. New Town Plaza has invested $15 million Hong Kong dollars, or US$1.9 million, on Christmas promotions this season, up 15% from the year before.
Its 'love and togetherness' decoration theme this year includes a romantic starlight garden and a nightly light show. Shoppers who spend HK$15,000 or more and are looking to tie the knot are eligible to receive custom-made proposal plans from romance consultants.
The virtual photo booth, which requires either a HK$20 donation or a shopping bill at the mall of more than HK$200, is equipped with Augmented Reality (AR) technology that captures real-world objects and integrates them into a virtual world on the screen. Besides a virtual man and woman, two children and two types of Christmas-themed costumes can be selected to be placed in the holiday photo, which will be available on New Town Plaza's Facebook page.
'But the main point of the photo booth is for the people suffering a lonely Christmas,' says Day Yuen, managing director for 430 Limited, the interactive design firm behind the technology.
This is not the first time AR technology has been used to get closer to virtual loved ones. In the resort town of Atami, Japan, AR technology was used to photograph lovestruck men with their videogame girlfriendsas a real-life extension of the Nintendo DS game LovePlus.
New Town Plaza is expecting both foot traffic and sales to grow 12% in November from last year and 15% in December. So far, the booth has been a big attraction. 'I'm not sure why it's so popular,' says Mr. Yuen.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Since his directorial debut 19 years ago
Peter Chan has become one of Asia's leading filmmakers, cranking out box-office hits while filling his office shelves with best-director awards.
He began with a string of popular Hong Kong comedies and dramas in the 1990s, then ventured to Hollywood to direct the 1999 romantic comedy 'The Love Letter,' which starred Kate Capshaw and Tom Selleck. In China in 2005 he directed the musical 'Perhaps Love' with Takeshi Kaneshiro and Zhou Xun, followed in 2007 by 'The Warlords,' a period war epic starring Jet Li, Andy Lau and Mr. Kaneshiro. Now, he's turning his hand to the martial-arts, or wu xia, genre. The Wall Street Journal caught up with Mr. Chan on the set of his latest film, itself titled 'Wu Xia.'
WSJ: How do you plan to 'redefine' the martial-arts genre with 'Wu Xia'?
A: All our period films seem to be mixed with martial arts and action. But period films actually have many different genres -- love stories, thrillers, crime dramas -- and I think we never see these period films in complete authenticity. We never see the details of life, and we never feel like we're transported in time.
WSJ: What attracted you to the story?
A: 'Wu Xia' is about a man who's in hiding, but his identity is unraveling and he needs to deal with his past.
I always believed that wu xia and the gangster genre are pretty similar. Once you step into that world you can never get out.
WSJ: What's driving higher production costs in the Chinese film industry?
A: There's only one thing that drives up costs -- demand versus supply.
The camera operator that we've worked with three times has doubled his salary in every movie I've worked on with him. There are too many movies that need good people.
WSJ: How is working in China compared with Hollywood?
He began with a string of popular Hong Kong comedies and dramas in the 1990s, then ventured to Hollywood to direct the 1999 romantic comedy 'The Love Letter,' which starred Kate Capshaw and Tom Selleck. In China in 2005 he directed the musical 'Perhaps Love' with Takeshi Kaneshiro and Zhou Xun, followed in 2007 by 'The Warlords,' a period war epic starring Jet Li, Andy Lau and Mr. Kaneshiro. Now, he's turning his hand to the martial-arts, or wu xia, genre. The Wall Street Journal caught up with Mr. Chan on the set of his latest film, itself titled 'Wu Xia.'
WSJ: How do you plan to 'redefine' the martial-arts genre with 'Wu Xia'?
A: All our period films seem to be mixed with martial arts and action. But period films actually have many different genres -- love stories, thrillers, crime dramas -- and I think we never see these period films in complete authenticity. We never see the details of life, and we never feel like we're transported in time.
WSJ: What attracted you to the story?
A: 'Wu Xia' is about a man who's in hiding, but his identity is unraveling and he needs to deal with his past.
I always believed that wu xia and the gangster genre are pretty similar. Once you step into that world you can never get out.
WSJ: What's driving higher production costs in the Chinese film industry?
A: There's only one thing that drives up costs -- demand versus supply.
The camera operator that we've worked with three times has doubled his salary in every movie I've worked on with him. There are too many movies that need good people.
WSJ: How is working in China compared with Hollywood?
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